What’s on the horizon for our economy and real estate? It’s easy to forecast doom and gloom, but if you listen to some of the expert forecasters, that’s far from the case.
Millennials, while being teased and disparaged in comedy standup routines, are starting to come into their own. They are purchasing homes, starting businesses and advancing in the corporate ranks. All the while, redefining the work place. The perks of yesterday are passé. Today, employees are looking for your company to be collaborative, inclusive, green and understand work life balance.
The older notion that more things and more expensive toys bring us status doesn’t hold as much weight any longer. This is a generation who has grown up with smart phones, snapchat, instagram and You Tube, and they have learned to make money with these tools that mostly frustrate some of us baby boomers.
There was a time not too long ago when I was conversing with some friends, pointing out that some of our values were not being respected any longer, and she told me, not to worry, those values may be changing, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps she was right?
The older notion that more things and more expensive toys bring us status doesn’t hold as much weight any longer. This is a generation who has grown up with smart phones, snapchat and You Tube, and they have learned to make money with these tools that mostly frustrate some of us baby boomers.
There was a time not too long ago when I was conversing with some friends, pointing out that some of our values were not being respected any longer, and she told me, not to worry, those values may be changing, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Perhaps she was right?
Read this forecast from Morgan Stanley and let me know what you think:
“It’s well-known that Generation Y, often called the Millennials, will overtake Baby Boomers as the largest cohort in the U.S. this year. Less discussed, but arguably more important: Gen Z, born between 1997 and 2012, will overtake Gen Y as the country’s largest cohort by 2034, ultimately peaking at 78 million.
As Gens Y and Z combine in the workforce, these two outsized generations could power higher consumption, wages and housing demand, all pillars of GDP growth.
For the U.S. economy, the demographic tailwinds created by these high-population cohorts could be significant, delivering the kind of “youth jolt” that the Baby Boomers were famous for. However, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley Research, the implications of these demographic shifts aren’t baked into current Congressional Budget Office forecasts, in particular, the projections for labor-force growth.
Work by the firm’s economic team, along with an in-depth survey of Generation Y and Z consumers, uncovered a significantly brighter outlook for the U.S. in the coming decades than previously thought. As Gens Y and Z combine in the workforce, these two outsized generations could power higher consumption, wages and housing demand, all pillars of GDP growth.
In addition, these new projections on labor-force growth could also mean a rosier outlook for Social Security and Medicare solvency, offering investors an overall bullish view for the U.S. between the 2020s and 2040s—and policymakers a different perspective on the road ahead.
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Headwinds Turn to Tailwinds
As a nation’s labor force grows, productivity, income and consumer spending often increase as well, creating a virtuous cycle of growth. The Baby Boomers are an apt example, propelling post-WWII economic activity for decades as they moved en masse into their prime working and earning years. Conversely, aging Boomers have also dragged on the economy, as structurally lower productivity and slow growth in the potential labor force held down GDP growth.
Those headwinds could be poised for change. Gen Y—born between 1981 and 1996—is now fully loaded into the labor force, even as Gen Z’s leading edge now graduates from college and enters the workforce.
This new generational overlap in the workplace could create significant synergies. “Powered by the economic machine of Gens Y and Z, the prime working-age population is projected to accelerate into the 2030s,” says Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Economist Ellen Zentner. “Younger Millennials will continue to reach their prime working years through 2021, and Gen Z will reach their prime working years from 2022 to the second half of the 2030s.”
These people. just now truly becoming adults, grew up with parents who invested in real estate. Who may have been adversely affected by the real estate bust, but who also grew up around parents, children, family members and neighbors who owned at least one home, perhaps a second home, and investment property. The value of owning property has been instilled in them. These are people who, when their earning power has increased, will most probably be investing in real estate, both residential and commercial.
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